Author: Kevin Drum

The latest JOLTS data is out, and it shows much the same as it did last month:

This only goes through May, but it does show a second month of a record high number of unfilled job openings. This bolsters the argument of those who think that stimulus payments and expanded UI benefits are keeping workers on the sidelines for a while even though plenty of jobs are available.

Personally, I don't find this worrisome. I've always figured that it would take a little while for the economy to settle down after it reopens, so a few months of supply chain readjustment, spot shortages, and job hunting are only to be expected. By the end of 2021 I expect that we'll be close to historically high levels of employment and historically low levels of unemployment. We just need a few more months for everything to shake out.

I've been pondering something for the past few days that might seem like I'm being faux naive or something, but here it is anyway: Why has the Florida condo collapse gotten so much news coverage for so long?

Obviously this was a newsworthy event. That's not what I'm talking about. But it strikes me as the kind of thing that would normally get three or four days of coverage and then fade away. Instead, it's been front-page news for a solid two weeks now. Why?

I can't come up with an answer. Is it a bigger deal than I think? Is it due to lack of news in other quarters? Or does it say something about our collective fear that the United States is falling apart?

Maybe I'm just inventing something that isn't there, but it seems like the condo collapse has seized our attention far more than other, similar disasters. Is it simply the fear of sudden death in a place we normally consider 100 percent safe? Or what?

Any ideas?

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 6. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

This is a penguin at the San Diego Zoo, picking nits or bugs or who knows what from his fur. I wish I could own a penguin. I'd like to see how the cats would react.

The Washington Post warns us that China is a serious threat to the US:

Those who worry that hawks in Washington are drumming up an unnecessary and dangerous new cold war with China ought to take the time to read the address delivered in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square on Thursday by Chinese President Xi Jinping. As military jets flew overhead and a large crowd roared its approval, Mr. Xi boasted of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”; he said China had “created a new model for human advancement” that it intended to spread through the world, while raising its armed forces to “world-class standards.”

"Mr. Xi’s speech," they conclude, "is a reminder that his regime’s soaring ambitions, and its belligerence in pursuing them, are a genuine threat to world order, and perhaps world peace."

Maybe. But let's get real. An American president could have delivered those lines almost verbatim on July 4th:

As military jets flew overhead and a large crowd roared its approval, Mr. Biden boasted that "America is back"; he said the United States "is dedicated to democracy and free markets" that it intended to continue spreading throughout the world, while warning others that "we have the most powerful military in human history."

Nobody would even blink at a speech like that. It would be taken for the routine patriotic blather that it is.

China has a lot to answer for, including its crackdown in Hong Kong; its treatment of the Uyghur minority; its behavior in the South China Sea; its routine theft of intellectual property; and more. That said, China really isn't a destabilizing presence worldwide. Its most aggressive instincts are almost exclusively aimed either internally or at its near neighbors.

Every big power has competition, and it's only natural that China would end up being ours after the fall of the Soviet Union. We need to take them seriously, but that doesn't mean desperately looking for provocations where none exist or ginning up panic over things like a little red meat tossed out for public consumption. That means as little coming from Xi as it would coming from Joe Biden.

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 5. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

This year I decided to play around with long-exposure shots of our local fireworks. The idea was to capture multiple bursts in a single image and also to capture longer tails.

It worked on both counts, as you'd expect, but I can't say that any of the resulting pictures were super outstanding. Still, I got a few nice color combinations, including an excellent mix of red, white, and blue (top photo) and orange, purple, and green (bottom photo). Happy 4th, everyone, both actual and observed!

Via the New York Times, a team of researchers took a look at COVID-19 outbreaks in the two weeks following a birthday in the family. Guess what?

The obvious conclusion is that even with COVID-19 raging, lots of families blithely went ahead with birthday parties for their kids. In places where the virus was under control, this did little harm. But in places where it wasn't, infections went way up after the party.

I suppose we could call this "idiot COVID" or something. "Johnny will be so disappointed if we don't have a party. And what harm can one little get-together do?" Sigh.

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 4. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

In a spontaneous act of optimism I have changed the y-axis again, this time running it from 0 to 2 (except for poor old Argentina, which is still in very rough shape). This provides a much more accurate look at the precise level and downward slope of the death rate in each of the countries.

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 3. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.