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Published on 25 Comments on Republican impeachment inquiry not going well

Republicans revved up their impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden today. So how's it going?

Keep in mind that these are not a bunch of spear carriers for the Biden crime family. They are the Republicans' own witnesses.

When even Steve Bannon has a point, you know you're in trouble.

Published on 33 Comments on You gotta wear a tie in the Senate

Our long national nightmare is over:

Pennsylvania senator John Fetterman will no longer be allowed to wear shorts and a hoodie on the floor of the Senate. Our weeklong experiment with casual dress is over and it is once again safe for women and children to watch the proceedings of the world's greatest deliberative body.

For myself, I have to say that it won't kill Fetterman to wear a suit and tie. He's not working from home and voting by Zoom, after all. At the same time, it's remarkable how unhinged everyone got over this. I mean, the dress code was restored by unanimous consent! When was the last time anything in the Senate passed by unanimous consent?

There are some who bitingly remark that the Senate surely has better things to do than fuss over its dress code. But not really. I guess they could approve another few military promotions over Tommy Tuberville's blockade, but anything else is little more than symbolic given the endless legislative deadlock currently embroiling the House. So I suppose they might as well restore their dress code instead of just twiddling their thumbs waiting for Kevin McCarthy to wrangle his herd of mad cows.

Published on 11 Comments on Has the economy really grown 511 in the third quarter?

This is crazy:

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is still forecasting that GDP growth in Q3 will be a red hot 4.9%. It was one thing to dismiss this early in the quarter, but as the model gets more and more data to work with it becomes more accurate. At this point, Q3 is just about over and the model has nearly all the data it will ever have. And it still thinks the economy is going gangbusters.

Nobody agrees with this, although, as you can see in the chart, the "blue chip consensus" of human forecasters has been steadily rising. Even if the GDPNow forecast is off, it look as if Q3 is going to turn out to be a surprisingly good one.

Published on 31 Comments on Tonight’s Republican debate was a shitshow

I only managed to watch half of the Republican debate tonight before I gave up. What a shitshow. The lesson they all seem to have taken from the last one is that they should yell over each other a lot.

That's all I've got. During the small portion I watched I heard little aside from stale bromides and a few lame attempts at zingers. Is it possible for every candidate to lose ground?

Published on 8 Comments on Raw data: Crime is back to pre-COVID levels

After hearing Republicans tonight talk about the supposedly epic crime wave turning America into a hellhole, it occurred to me that maybe the NCVS had been updated through 2022. And it has! Given the current parlous state of the FBI's crime figures, it's the best source we have for national crime statistics. Here's the latest:

Crime has been down lately but spiked back up in 2022. It's now at about pre-pandemic levels.

Published on 9 Comments on College tuition is about the same as 30 years ago

While we're all watching the latest Republican debate, I want to take the chance to repeat a chart from this morning:

The actual tuition paid by college students, once you account for standard discounts, has barely changed over the past 30 years. It's up 13% at private universities and down 10% at public universities.

Published on 16 Comments on Lunchtime Photo

What dome should I put up today? How about a nuclear dome? Here are the two containment domes at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, taken on a hazy late afternoon. It's a funny thing: San Onofre was shut down a decade ago, but all the high-tension lines coming from the station are still up even though they no longer have any electricity to carry. I wonder when they're going to get rid of them?

September 24, 2023 — San Onofre State Beach, California

Published on 19 Comments on Republicans can’t afford to attack Robert Menendez

Why are Republicans declining to call for Sen. Robert Menendez to resign? The charges against him are pretty serious, after all. Aaron Blake explains:

Because Republicans believe standing by Trump is politically necessary, because they really wanted Roy Moore to hold a key Senate seat, and because they need the vote of Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in a tightly divided House, they are going to hold off as long as possible in passing judgment on these or any similar allegations, regardless of whether they have resulted in indictments.

If Menendez is unfit for public office, then so are Trump and Santos—and that's unacceptable. Better to stick to their guns about how the FBI is corrupt itself and can't be trusted to investigate political figures.

In fairness, it's worth pointing out that Republicans get no benefit from calling for Menendez to resign, just as Democrats are taking no risks by demanding that he go. If Menendez does leave office, New Jersey's governor will replace him with a Democrat, and a Democrat will almost certainly win the seat permanently next year. The balance of the Senate will be unchanged no matter what happens.

Published on 14 Comments on Joe Biden is as popular as any former president

I suppose everyone is tired of me posting this chart, but sometimes I feel like I should put it up every day:

Joe Biden's approval level is totally normal for this point in time. He's a few points less popular than Bill Clinton was at 140 weeks, but that's it. Everything is fine.

Published on 24 Comments on ChatGPT is no longer stuck in the past

ChatGPT can now hold ordinary spoken conversations with people, and apparently it works pretty well. It can also talk about pictures you show it. And this:

I think this is an even bigger deal. All that's left now is for ChatGPT to stop "hallucinating," aka "making up shit." Once that happens it will genuinely become as useful as some people at some jobs.

By the way: even with the hallucinations left in, a speaking ChatGPT is going to be great for low-stakes conversations with lonely elderly people. It's someone they can talk to all day long who will never get tired of them. I expect this to become very widely used in nursing homes everywhere.